The Theory That Would Not Die

A New York Times Book Review Editor’s Choice: A vivid account of the generations-long dispute over Bayes’ rule, one of the greatest breakthroughs in the history of applied mathematics and statistics   “An intellectual romp touching on, among other topics, military ingenuity, the origins of modern epidemiology, and the theological foundation of modern mathematics.”—Michael Washburn, Boston Globe   “To have crafted a page-turner out of the history of statistics is an impressive feat. If only lectures at university had been this racy.”—David Robson, New Scientist   Bayes’ rule appears to be a straightforward, one-line theorem: by updating our initial beliefs with objective new information, we get a new and improved belief. To its adherents, it is an elegant statement about learning from experience. To its opponents, it is subjectivity run amok.   In the first-ever account of Bayes’ rule for general readers, Sharon Bertsch McGrayne explores this controversial theorem and the human